Trials, Tribulations & Permutations: How Will It End?

So, after another week of action in the ISL, Pune have sealed their spot in the playoffs by virtue of a better H2H (head to head) record, which is incredibly confusing and one of the main reasons why I’m doing an updated version of this article. Now, initially, it was believed that if a team was level on points, it would be settled on goal difference, you know, like a normal league does it?

However, why I thought the ISL would be anything like normal is beyond me and lo and behold, it isn’t; the thing that makes it even more confusing is that the ISL official Twitter account didn’t seem to know how it worked either which only threw further mud in my eyes.

After Bengaluru beat Jamshedpur, Pune’s playoff place was sealed, yet the official ISL account tweeted this:

.@bengalurufc have sealed top spot with an unassailable lead in the standings! Who else will join them in the semi-finals?#LetsFootball #HeroISL #JAMBEN pic.twitter.com/1rExQMYIbh

— Indian Super League (@IndSuperLeague) February 25, 2018

And it was only several hours later that they tweeted this…

Confirmation: After @JamshedpurFC​'s loss to @bengalurufc last night, @FCPuneCity have secured a place in the #HeroISL playoffs for the very first time!#LetsFootball pic.twitter.com/L84Alz6vct

— Indian Super League (@IndSuperLeague) February 26, 2018

Quite how the league themselves don’t know if they’ve qualified doesn’t leave much hope for the rest of us; anyway, let’s try and crack on and figure out what on earth is going on.

First, let’s just get the remaining fixtures that matter out of the way and then we can discuss the permutations…

Today (27th): Delhi Dynamos vs Mumbai City (7th)

28th: FC Goa (6th) vs ATK

1st: Bengaluru vs Kerala Blasters (5th)

2nd: Delhi Dynamos vs Pune City (2nd)

3rd: Chennaiyin (3rd) vs Mumbai City (7th)

4th: Jamshedpur (4th) vs FC Goa (6th)

4th: ATK vs NorthEast United

Right, we can completely disregard the game between ATK and NorthEast due to the fact that it has no bearing on who finishes where in the top four. Pune are not in bold because they are already qualified for the playoffs, yet, they are not guaranteed second place, hence their current position being there.

This article will go out as the Delhi vs Mumbai game is at halftime and it makes life a lot easier if Mumbai drop points, however, if they win, we need to look at all scenarios. Before we do that, let me explain how it’s all sorted, considering they don’t use goal difference…

If two teams are on the same amount of points at the end of the season it’ll be decided by:

1. Highest number of points obtained in league matches between the clubs concerned.
2. Superior goal difference resulting from league matches between the clubs concerned.
3. Highest number of goals scored in league matches between the clubs concerned.
4. Goal difference.
5. Goals scored.

There are a couple of other points, but it shouldn’t get any further done that, otherwise they will probably end up tossing a coin to decide who makes the playoffs. That would probably be easier than deciphering this, mind.

The easiest (?) way of looking at it, is that if teams end up on the same amount of points, it reverts to a mini-league, so, as it stands at the moment, Pune and Chennaiyin are locked on 29 points apiece. Chennaiyin have beaten Pune home and away, therefore, if it’s just those tied after the final round of fixtures, Chennaiyin will finish above Pune.

Now, you’re probably wondering why Goa have the Q (for qualified) next to their name, but Chennaiyin don’t. You’re not alone in thinking that, believe me, it took me a while to suss it all out as well. So, now, we need to look at potential scenarios and how it will pan out.

#1 Pune Win, Chennaiyin Win & FC Goa Lose Both Their Games

Chennaiyin will finish second as they and Goa will both finish on 32 points, Jamshedpur will take 4th on 29 points. This one is relatively straightforward because we’ve already discussed the mini-league between those two. It’s not very likely Goa will lose twice, though.

#2 Pune Lose, Mumbai Win Both Their Games & Jamshedpur Beat Goa

This is where it gets a little bit more complicated. If the above happens then Pune, Chennaiyin, Mumbai & Jamshedpur will all finish on 29 points and with their only being two spaces available (you’ll understand why Pune are through shortly), something has to give. This is how the mini-league looks before a ball is kicked this week:

Mumbai beat Chennaiyin and they’ll go above Jamshedpur in the mini-league, thus, ensuring their playoff position. Chennaiyin can go above Pune, but, no one else can catch Pune, hence why they’re already qualified. So in this scenario, Pune will finish second, Chennaiyin third and Mumbai fourth. Are you still with us?

#3 Pune Win, Chennaiyin Draw & Jamshedpur Beat Goa

No tie-breaker required on this one, Pune finish second, Chennaiyin third and Jamshedpur fourth. That was nice and simple, wasn’t it?

#4 Goa Draw Twice, Chennaiyin Avoid Defeat & Kerala Beat Bengaluru

They’ve been somewhat forgotten in all of this, but, Kerala can still take fourth place if this happens. No tie-breaker on this either so no need to go into too much detail on this, either.

#5 Goa Get Four Points From Six, Kerala Win & Chennaiyin Avoid Defeat

In this case, Chennaiyin are fine because they’ll be on at least thirty points. The same can’t be said for Kerala and Goa, though. In this instance, they’ll both be level on 28 points and because it’s only the two of them that are level on points, it’s easy to figure out that Goa would go into the playoffs because Goa beat Kerala home and away.

#6 Mumbai Win Twice, Pune Win & Jamshedpur Win

This mixes it up once more as instead of it being a four-way tie on 29 points, it’s only a three-way tie. So before Mumbai play Chennaiyin, the table looks like this:

So, Mumbai will leapfrog Jamshedpur to take third, Coppell’s side will have to settle for fourth and Chennaiyin will drop out the top four altogether.

#7 Pune Lose, Chennaiyin Win & Jamshedpur Win

With this, Chennaiyin will take second with thirty-two points and Pune & Jamshedpur will be level on twenty-nine points. Pune will take third because they beat Jamshedpur home and away.

#8 Goa Win Both Their Games, Pune Draw & Chennaiyin Draw

This will see all three teams tied on thirty points and with the mini-league looking like this between them:

It means that Pune will finish fourth and play Bengaluru in the semi-finals and Chennaiyin and Goa will finish second and third respectively.

#9 Goa Win Twice, Mumbai Win Twice & Pune Lose

Goa will take second place behind Bengaluru which will leave Mumbai, Chennaiyin and Pune in a mini-league. Now, remember, Pune can’t be eliminated, but this is what the mini-league looks like at present…

So, if this ends up being the case, the amount of goals Mumbai win by will define whether or not they go through to the playoffs. Mumbai have to win by two clear goals to make top four in this scenario.

That exhausts the majority of the scenarios and my brain is well and truly fried so we’ll call it a day there, here are some facts for you that are true no matter of the other results:

Mumbai need to win both games to stand a chance of qualifying.

If Jamshedpur lose, they’re out.

If Chennaiyin avoid defeat, they’re through.

If FC Goa win both their games, they’re through.

Those are the only guarantees and I hope it all makes a bit more sense about what could possibly happen this week. Hopefully, we’ll end up with a winner takes all game between Jamshedpur and Goa on the last day of the regular season, preferably with Goa in the driver’s seat because you can’t imagine Goa sitting back regardless of the position they find themselves in.

Until the next time.