For those of you that don’t know, our website is part of a bigger group called Falbros Media Group (FMG) and we’ve got a writer’s platform where we all share ideas and what have you. Anyway, on one of the sites (By Far The Greatest Team) there has been a feature running called ‘Betting Bad’ where a writer called Jack Wills gives his tips for the weekend and explicitly tells you not to follow him, because, by his own admission, he’s not very good. His latest article on the matter in hand is here.
It got me thinking after reading it because since I started working on this site back in November, I sign off a lot of my articles with a tip on something relating to the content that has been discussed. When I used to do the match previews, that’s when they appeared every time without fail, but now I don’t do the previews anymore (thanks, Steve) so the bets appear somewhat more sporadically in comparison to earlier in the season. And, believe me, with what I’m about to show you, you’ll be glad that they are a lot more infrequent nowadays.
Every Bet This Season
So, in a nutshell, what I’m going to do is run through all the bets I’ve suggested at the end of every article and see how it’s all looking. After I had been doing it for a while (the suggesting a bet), I started recommending that with some of the bets that people should put their houses on them. So we’ll also establish if I’ve made anyone homeless which is always good fun.
Some of the bets at the beginning wouldn’t have been things you could get prices on, but we’ll look at them as well because I’m a transparent kinda guy. Without further ado…
Robbie Keane to score on his debut – Lost. He scored on his home debut but that isn’t what we were looking for.
Wes Brown to get injured – Won. As I said, you wouldn’t’ve been able to get a price on some of these…
Edu Bedia to score more this season than his last three seasons put together – TBC. It sounds like an outlandish bet but he only scored once over the three seasons prior to this. He’s only scored once so far this season so it could still happen.
Sunil Chhetri to score at least two match-winning goals – Won. He’s got three of those so far this season.
Rene Meulensteen not to be in charge of Kerala at the start of next season. Won. He got sacked in January.
Rene Mihelic to get at least three assists and one red card – TBC. He’s set up four goals, however, he’s yet to be sent off. He’s picked up a couple of yellows though. Just kick someone Rene!
John Gregory to be managing in the English Football League at the beginning of the 19/20 season – TBC. No way of knowing this one yet. He’s doing well at Chennaiyin, mind, so maybe he’ll stick around for a bit longer over here.
Odair Fortes to score a goal, get an assist, pick up a yellow card and a red card – Lost. This may have been one of the worst. He got released by NorthEast after playing 169 minutes.
FC Goa to win away at Delhi – Won. 5-1, smashed them.
Coro to score 15+ goals this season – TBC. He’s on 13 so far, it should sail in. Should.
Pune City vs Bengaluru over 3.5 goals – Won. A 96th minute Sunil Chhetri goal landed this bet as Chhetri’s goal made it 3-1.
Bengaluru to win the league – TBC. I’m kicking myself here because I should have said to finish top. Nevertheless, they seem the team to beat at the moment.
Only Two Wrong So Far
Just to give you a little running total; at this point, things are going relatively well. I’ve suggested twelve bets, five have been right, five are TBC with some looking highly probable and I’ve only got two wrong. I’d love to stop there and say that’s all the bets I’ve suggested so far this season, however, that would make me a liar, so let’s continue…
Kerala Blasters 0-0 NorthEast United – Lost. I remember taking quite a lot of time over this debating whether to do under 1.5 or something like that but I stuck my neck out and went for 0-0. It finished 1-0 to Kerala, ah well.
NorthEast vs Mumbai Under 0.5 FH (First Half) goals – Lost. As you can see, there are not many goals in NorthEast’s games so I tried being clever again and picked an obscure market as opposed to just backing Mumbai which would have been the sensible thing. Mumbai won 2-0, one goal in each half.
Bengaluru to be beating Jamshedpur at HT – Lost. Again, too obscure for my own good. I would’ve backed Bengaluru in this regardless and that wouldn’t have done any good because Jamshedpur beat them 1-0. I’ve still no idea how because Bengaluru pulverised them from start to finish. Third loss in a row. No need to panic. Research works. Just a shame I didn’t really do any.
Following on from their win against Bengaluru, I said Jamshedpur would finish in the top four – TBC. They sit fourth at the moment with two games left, their fate is in their own hands so hopefully that’ll be another we mark as a winner.
Chennaiyin to beat Kerala – Lost. This one was annoying. I mean, close to jumping off the balcony annoying. My mate Rene Mihelic, who appeared earlier, gave Chennaiyin the lead in the 89th minute, buzzing. However, in the FOURTH minute of injury time, Kerala decided to equalise, livid.
Jamshedpur vs Chennaiyin Under 1.5 goals – Won. Back in the game! I was tempted to back Jamshedpur but stuck to the fact there’s barely any goals in their games and it paid off as Chennaiyin came away 1-0 winners.
An Englishman In Germany Betting On Sweden
So after a relatively good start, we’ve now had another six bets and only one has won, one is still in TBC but I’m confident in it and the other four were shit, excuse my French. The under 1.5 bet aside, I was starting to become irate because whilst I was putting it to finish the article off, I also take pride in my work and I wasn’t happy with the way things were going. I felt the time was right to introduce the house bet. It’s a dangerous beast. Essentially, it’s a bet that I’m 100% confident in and would put the house on it. The thing is, when I have a bet like this, I will tell everyone I know, literally anyone and everyone and that can go one of two ways. Either you’re a hero or you end up being extra careful opening your mail in case someone has sent a letter bomb.
Two cases for this; first one is when I was living in Germany. I went into the bookies after finally finding one and asked for a price on a Swedish third or fourth division game which may sound a little bit weird, but it was the summer of 2013 and there was no international football, so Scandinavian football was the next best thing. Some bloke started speaking to me in the bookies about it and started asking if it was fixed in any way shape or form (it wasn’t, well not to my knowledge anyway). I told him no, I’ve done my research and it all points to a home win. He then told a few other people and it went from there, after all, I guess it’s not every day an Englishman walks into bookies in North Germany to bet on a lower league Swedish game. I wish I could remember who it was that I backed but even after looking at the tables, none of them ring any bells. The bet came in and when I went to collect my winnings everyone was saying thanks and asking for my next tip etc, however, I had nothing and went on my way.
The other side of the coin is Nantes. Fucking Nantes. The name makes my blood boil. I have to tell this story because just to demonstrate how it can go from one extreme to the other. I had been on a relatively good run betting wise, backing corners for Cluj away at United in the Champions League and other daft things like that but then I stumbled across the crown jewels. Well, at least what I thought was the crown jewels. It was the cup in France, the Coupe de France which is the equivalent of the FA Cup and Nantes were facing Saint-Renan. I only know that name because I’ve just looked it up, however, I can tell you what my research told me. I remember that like it was yesterday.
Nantes Are NOT To Be Trusted
Nantes were in Ligue 2 (English Equivalent of the Championship) and Saint-Renan were in the TWENTIETH tier of French football. That’s right 20th. I don’t even know what the equivalent of that is in England anymore, I think Dog & Duck FC would beat them. Anyway, there was no value in the win itself so I looked at the -1 & -2 handicap which was fantastically priced. I had the lot on it. It was in December as well, just before Christmas so I thought nice little earner, bosh. Nope. It finished 1-0. They only scored one fucking goal. To make matters worse, in the final seconds of the game, some Nantes clown rounded the keeper and then fell over. If that had gone in it wouldn’t have been so bad, but no, Nantes were firmly placed on the hate list. Funnily enough, I was placed on a lot of people’s hate lists after that as well. Swings and roundabouts.
Mumbai to beat Delhi HOUSE BET – Won. Got off to a flyer; Mumbai weren’t messing about as they beat Delhi 4-0. Best possible start to the house bets, we were now on two houses!
Pune to beat NorthEast United HOUSE BET – Won. Even better than before, this time it was 5-0. Three houses and I seemed to have my mojo back. The reason why these two were house bets was that they were both at home against inferior opposition and I was 100% confident. 2/2.
Kerala to draw with Bengaluru – Lost. Bengaluru played them off the park and beat them 3-1 in their own backyard. I was still doing the previews at this point so I was tipping for the sake of finishing the article. House Bets are the only important ones.
ATK vs FC Goa over 2.5 goals – Lost. The game finished 1-1. Not a lot else can be said about that.
Mumbai to beat Jamshedpur and under 2.5 goals – Lost. I’m not too sure what planet I was on with this one. I must have been looking for value as I can’t quite understand why I didn’t just tip Mumbai. Regardless, it finished 2-2.
Goa to win away at NorthEast HOUSE BET – Lost. If this game was played another 99 times, Goa would win the majority. The reason why NorthEast beat Goa (2-1) was down to the ‘Avram Grant effect’ however I thought Goa’s firepower would have been enough. Never mind. Back down to two houses.
Chennaiyin to beat Delhi HT/FT – Lost. This was top versus bottom. Chennaiyin should have beat them comfortably. However, Delhi decided to take the lead and then equalise in the last minute. Not that it would have made a difference, mind. It was 1-1 at HT. Not a good day at the office.
It’s weird isn’t it this betting lark? Three house bets done, two of them landed. Not too bad at all. The other ones just seem to be a crock of shit, ah well, the show must go on! You’ll notice that at times there are long gaps between the house bets and that is because there is no point doing a house bet for the sake of it. Much better to have big and infrequent than little and often. It is in this case anyway. Let’s get back to it…
Bengaluru vs ATK over 2.5 goals – Lost. Somehow this finished 1-0. I’m not entirely sure how but it did.
Delhi vs Kerala under 1.5 goals – Lost. I tried to go the other way this time but it finished 1-3. I wasn’t backing the winner of the games because the ISL is unpredictable and so hard to call, hence the absence of the house bets.
Jamshedpur DNB (Draw No Bet) away at Goa – Lost. It was such a good price and had the additional protection of a refund if it was a draw. Goa won anyway; moving on…
Miguel Portugal to be the next manager to leave his post – Lost. No idea how this never happened as Delhi have been shocking but Sheringham got his marching orders from ATK. Never mind.
NorthEast to beat ATK – Lost. ATK beat them; this was with Sheringham still at the helm but after NorthEast’s performance against Goa, I felt sure they would follow up with another win. Wrong.
Chennaiyin versus Pune over 2.5 goals – Lost. Finished 1-0. I was close to giving up. Luckily, the next game presented the return of the house bet.
The Magic Of The House Bet
Bengaluru to win away at Delhi HOUSE BET – Lost. Back to one house. I’m not entirely sure what happened with this game as they lost 2-0. Since that game, they’ve won every league game bar one. Typical.
NorthEast to get at least double the number of points under Avram Grant than they did under Joao de Deus – TBC. They got four under Joao and currently sit on eleven points for the season meaning they’ve accumulated seven under the tutelage of Grant & Eelco. One more, please.
Kerala to win away at Jamshedpur – Lost. I have no idea what I was thinking with this game. Jamshedpur won 2-1 and I learnt my lesson. We go again.
We are nearly at the point where I’ve finished doing match previews, so there should be an upturn because it won’t be a bet for the sake of it.
Mumbai vs Bengaluru BTTS (Both Teams To Score) HOUSE BET – Won. This was a real do or die moment because if this had lost, the initial investment would have been lost and I would have been looking for a paddle in and around shit creek. We’ve got Leo Costa’s 76th-minute goal for Mumbai to thank for that.
Chennaiyin to win away at NorthEast – Lost. I even said in the preview that last time I tipped a team away at NorthEast, they lost (Goa) and that was the reason why I wasn’t making Chennaiyin a house bet. As it goes, NorthEast carried on winning games that frankly had no right to.
Pune to beat ATK HOUSE BET – Won. My final match preview for the site gave me the chance of a house bet and I took it with both hands and so did Pune as they beat ATK 3-0. From seemingly nowhere, we were now on three houses.
No More Match Previews = No More Stupid Bets
Just to give you some understanding now, the only bets I would do now would be on my Super Sunday Preview which I do early on a Saturday so I can choose from either the Saturday game or the two Sunday games for my bet and naturally, with there being three games to choose from, it makes it more likely for there to be a house bet.
Jamshedpur to beat Delhi HOUSE BET – Won. Four houses!! This was nearly a disaster, though. Delhi were 2-0 up within half an hour and I was trying to find an extension lead that stretched to the bathroom, however, I needn’t worry as an 86th minute Trindade goal made it 3-2 and everything was right in the world.
Goa to beat Mumbai HOUSE BET – Lost. This was a sucker punch and then some. Goa went 2-1 up on the stroke of half-time and we were well on the way to having five houses, however, Goa decided to have a player sent off just after the interval, it went out of control from there and Mumbai won 4-3. That was unlucky, not a bad bet.
Baldvinsson to score more than Sifneos – TBC. This bet came on the back of an article I did about Kerala’s new striker, Gudjon Baldvinsson. He’s on one so far and Sifneos is on four. Not looking likely unless Kerala gatecrash the top four.
Goa to beat NorthEast HOUSE BET – Lost. You think I would have learnt my lesson, wouldn’t you? I made the same mistake again as I was certain that Goa would beat NorthEast this time around. I was wrong as Goa lost the lead twice. Nightmare. Down to two houses.
Jamshedpur to beat NorthEast HOUSE BET – Won. Back in the game. If NorthEast had messed this one up as well I would’ve hit the roof, luckily, Coppell’s side had enough and we were back up to three houses.
Mumbai to win at ATK HOUSE BET – Won. Four houses. Mumbai came away with all three points from Kolkata as they kept their fading playoff dream alive.
So, that is that. Those are all the bets I’ve recommended so far and it doesn’t make for pretty reading if you look at the stats, I’ll be honest. There have been 43 total bets, 13 have been successful, eight are TBC and 22 have lost. So, just over half have lost which doesn’t make pretty reading, although, if you look at the house bets in insolation which are the important ones; seven out of eleven have been successful meaning my strike rate is at 63%.
I’m disappointed with the overall score but it was to be expected in many regards because I was finding a bet for the sake of the article, but, now it seems to be a lot more steady and if I can maintain the house bets at a similar level, I’ll be more than happy.
I’d like to say gamble responsibly, but I’m not going to preach something I don’t practice myself. Gamble what you can afford to lose or, better still, just don’t lose!
Until the next time.